The Prediction Trade

Welcome to The Prediction Trade

The Prediction Trade is the only podcast for gamblers, traders, investors, math freaks, data geeks and superforecasters devoted to the intersection of probability, prediction and profit.

If you can bet on it, you can bet we’ll talk about it on The Prediction Trade!

Listen to our trailer below.

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Latest Episodes

KY Derby: Who to Bet & How to Bet (#38)

Two horse-racing veteran analysts handicap the 147th Kentucky Derby for TPT. Molly Jo Rosen is first out of the gate with a lesson on how to bet smart on big race days. Noel Michaels takes us around the turn with a look at this year’s strongest contenders. Then, both guests go head-to-head on the home stretch sharing the five horses they will each be betting on. Spoiler Alert: Three horses end up on both experts’ shortlists!
KY Derby: Who to Bet & How to Bet (#38)

Kheiriddin: True Dough in Trudeau (#37)

“I am 100% certain!” That’s how confident National Post columnist Tasha Kheiriddin is on this episode’s political wager. Kheiriddin dissects the Liberal Party of Canada’s recently revealed budget and discusses the likelihood of a Canadian election taking place in 2021, resulting in a high-conviction even-money betting opportunity.
Kheiriddin: True Dough in Trudeau (#37)

Scaramucci Forecasts Bitcoin Prices & NY Politics (#36)

Anthony Scaramucci returns to The Prediction Trade with a shocking prediction on the fate of NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Scaramucci shares his 2021 bitcoin price forecast as well as his thoughts on NY Mayor Bill de Blasio, NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, NY Attorney General Letitia James and Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz.
Scaramucci Forecasts Bitcoin Prices & NY Politics (#36)
View More Episodes

The Prediction Trade Blog

The Cost of Overconfidence

Hubris erects a barrier to good forecasting. Unchecked, it could prove expensive.  With SPACs all the rage, it’s important not to get too carried away by the rhetoric. Overconfidence can… Read More
Recent Posts

Cuomo Will Be Reelected, Scaramucci Says

TPT Is Back!

Open-Minded Forecasting in a Deeply Polarized World

20 Predictions for '21 and Beyond

Jeff
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Host of The Prediction Trade & Editorial Director of Luckbox




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