Approval Ratings, Presidential Predictions & Stimulus Implications

As outlined by Luckbox in October, some historically reliable presidential election prediction models, data and opinions have suggested conflicting results regarding the 2020 electoral outcome. With election day less than a week away, it’s worth reviewing some last-minute prediction considerations as well as a brief analysis of some potential impacts of different outcomes.  One important … Continued

Trading the Trade War Post-Election

Overshadowed by the U.S. elections, as well as a recent worldwide surge in coronavirus cases, the U.S.-China trade war could snap back into focus on Nov. 4—or whenever the outcome of the election is ultimately decided.  That’s because international trade has received an outsized amount of attention during the Trump presidency, and it’s not known … Continued

The Pollster Who Nailed 2016 Says the Polls Are Wrong, Trump Will Win

Social desirability bias has created a shy Trump voter effect, Trafalgar Group’s chief pollster Robert Cahaly says. The result? Trump could fare much better on election night than most polls suggest. Despite receiving seemingly endless criticism, Robert Cahaly’s track record as a political pollster speaks for itself. He and his polling company, Trafalgar Group, had … Continued

Trading on Trump’s Tweets

Twitter found itself in the media spotlight after President Donald Trump last Thursday signed an executive order targeting social media platforms and their protections under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The act, explored in depth in a previous Luckbox book review, protects companies such as Twitter and Facebook from being held liable for … Continued