Who Will Be Nominated for the 2025 Grammys?

Making Book: From Musings to Markets

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It’s been less than a year since the launch of the Kalshi events exchange, a platform that provides speculators and active traders the opportunity to bet on outcomes in business, politics, cultural events, the economy and the weather. To understand what powers the site’s prediction markets, Luckbox asked Kalshi markets team member William Arnesen for … Continued

Traders, Speculators & Gamblers: Season 3 Is Here!

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The Prediction Trade returned this week, kicking off its third season with trade ideas in PredictIt’s Brazilian election markets, bets on the NCAA March Madness tournament and forecasts for Kalshi’s 2022 Academy Awards markets. The show evolved for its new season to include a video format, and Luckbox magazine editor at large Garrett Baldwin was … Continued

Money Over Mind

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Making—or losing—money in prediction markets can change beliefs. But how does that work?   Stock and options traders are continually trying to predict the future. After all, every market decision boils down to the same question: “Will this or won’t this make money?” But not all markets are created equal. Investors and economists have had … Continued

Kalshi: The Exchange for Everything

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Investing in the outcome of events is nothing new, but this federally regulated events exchange is Longtime Luckbox readers are well aware of the educational and financial benefits of reliable forecasting. From the political prediction markets of PredictIt to the leaderboards of Good Judgment Open, bragging rights and profits abound for those with a prophetic … Continued