An All-Star Panel Wades Into the Election Prediction Market Trading Pits
Mark Cuban, Robert Cahaly, and others joined Luckbox’s Jeff Joseph to look several days into the future without the advantage of a crystal ball
An All-Star Panel Wades Into the Election Prediction Market Trading Pits
Betting Against the Political Polls
Pollsters fared badly in the 2020 elections, especially down-ballot. Were prediction markets a better bet? Forecasters are a shifty bunch, adept at concocting preemptive excuses and post hoc narratives for why their projections are right, no matter what happens. They eagerly point out the stupidity of betting markets, such as political prediction market PredictIt.org, yet … Continued
The Pollster Who Nailed 2016 Says the Polls Are Wrong, Trump Will Win
Social desirability bias has created a shy Trump voter effect, Trafalgar Group’s chief pollster Robert Cahaly says. The result? Trump could fare much better on election night than most polls suggest. Despite receiving seemingly endless criticism, Robert Cahaly’s track record as a political pollster speaks for itself. He and his polling company, Trafalgar Group, had … Continued