Open-Minded Forecasting in a Deeply Polarized World

Superforecasters share three strategies for making accurate predictions Americans are more polarized than ever, and their split along two ideological extremes complicates a forecaster’s job. Polarization stresses feelings over facts, confounding the separation of signal from noise that’s essential to forecasting accuracy. Also, the forecaster’s own biases and preferences can be harder to recognize—and set … Continued