The Prediction Trade returned this week, kicking off its third season with trade ideas in PredictIt’s Brazilian election markets, bets on the NCAA March Madness tournament and forecasts for Kalshi’s 2022 Academy Awards markets. The show evolved for its new season to include a video format, and Luckbox magazine editor at large Garrett Baldwin was … Continued
Traders are not a monolithic group. Some have a high risk tolerance, while others are more risk averse. Those with higher risk tolerance would probably prefer to trade TSLA, while those that are more risk averse would lean toward XLU. Here are 12 of the most “boring” stocks and ETFs as measured by a combination … Continued
Monday Sector ETF Slumps With last Monday’s large sell off, the hardest hit sectors in the S&P 500 were Energy, Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Volatility Curve Below is a current snapshot of the VIX futures. /VX and /VXM are the VIX and Micro-VIX futures respectively. /VX is $1000 per 1 move, whereas /VXM is $100 … Continued
“The Political Trade” podcast is now “The Prediction Trade,” and there’s a lot more than just political betting on the horizon Luckbox magazine’s political prediction market podcast, The Political Trade, is no longer solely focused on political betting. Under the banner of the PodcastOne podcasting network, the newly rebranded show—now called The Prediction Trade—will venture … Continued
In solid red or blue states, one vote is unlikely to change the outcome. Instead, Libertarian presidential nominee Jo Jorgensen suggests using that vote to support third parties and, as a result, more choice in elections. Libertarian presidential nominee Jo Jorgensen challenged the notion that a third-party vote is a “wasted vote,” instead suggesting in … Continued
Mark Vargas, the “mystery man” who helped broker commutations for Rod Blagojevich and Roger Stone, reveals how he accomplished the unlikely, as well as some shocking political predictions Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential election victory came as a surprise to many, particularly those who closely followed the polls. Now, with less than three months before the … Continued
Big-name Republicans are backing the super PAC, including Anthony Scaramucci Republican- and former-Republican-led super PAC the Lincoln Project has cracked the code to virality, but its primary targets aren’t Democrats. They’re President Donald Trump and Republican senators. “The Lincoln Project is holding accountable those who would violate their oaths to the Constitution and would put … Continued
The most shallow, duplicitous, nefarious, hypocritical and sanctimonious candidate will get the gig, Ratigan says Kamala Harris will be Joe Biden’s vice-presidential nominee, asserts former MSNBC host Dylan Ratigan. “I’ve never been more confident of anything in my life,” Ratigan said during an appearance on prediction market-focused podcast The Political Trade. “Make sure you hold … Continued
Senior researcher at the Niskanen Center Rachel Bitecofer is no stranger to political forecasting, skyrocketing in popularity after nailing the 2018 midterms with near total accuracy. And to prediction market traders who heed her predictions, Bitecofer has proven her modeling is not only insightful, but valuable. Political polarization and hyper partisanship lie at the heart … Continued
Unlike the weather, probability-based investment strategies prove surprisingly predictable. Not everyone wakes up thinking about proactive investing—but most contemplate the weather almost every day. In fact, the Weather Channel is piped into something like 79 million American homes. That’s about 61% of all the households in the United States. And that’s not counting all the … Continued