• Crude oil is stealing the headlines, but natural gas has delivered the real gains — up more than 60% since November and pushing gas-levered stocks higher. 
• Expand Energy leads the pack, with strong post-merger execution, rising free cash flow and growing access to high-value LNG export markets.
• EQT and Antero Resources offer solid long-term appeal. But after big runs, current valuations suggest investors may want to wait for better entry points.

Crude oil may be dominating the headlines — spiking sharply after Israel’s strike on Iran — but natural gas has the momentum. The latter has been playing the long game with less flash and more follow-through. Its prices have been steadily rising since last autumn, quietly outpacing crude oil and powering a rally among some of the sector’s best-positioned companies. 

Since last November, natural gas prices have surged more than 65%, jumping from around $2.30 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) to $3.85. Over that same period, crude oil is up just over 10%, rising from $68 to $75 a barrel. Much of the drama in the oil patch stems from its swoon below $60 in May and its recent rebound above $70. But over the long haul, natural gas has clearly outperformed, and savvy investors are taking notice. 

Leading the charge are EQT (EQT), Expand Energy (EXE) and Antero Resources (AR), three of the most natural gas-leveraged names in the US energy complex. Over the past year, these stocks have climbed 50%, 40% and 30%, respectively, buoyed by improving cash flows, stronger pricing, and rising demand from LNG exports and AI-driven power needs.

Today, we dig into why these companies have outpaced their peers, how their valuations stack up after the rally and what investors should watch going forward. 

EQT: a natural gas giant reinvents itself

In the vast US energy market, EQT has emerged as a dominant force in natural gas. Once a traditional upstream player, the company has evolved into a vertically integrated platform with control over both production and pipeline infrastructure across the Appalachian Basin. 

That transformation was on full display in the company’s Q1 results: Production hit 571 Bcfe (billions of cubic feet equivalent), costs fell to just $1.05/Mcfe (thousand cubic feet of natural gas) and free cash flow surged past $1 billion. Even more impressively, the company delivered those results while also reducing capital expenditures. With strong execution, tight cost control and improving operating leverage, management is delivering on its long-term vision. 

But there’s more to the story. EQT is also laying the groundwork for long-term advantage in a world demanding cleaner, more reliable energy. In April, the company acquired Olympus Energy for $1.8 billion, adding 90,000 net acres and an attractive grouping of midstream assets located just east of Pittsburgh. This area is becoming increasingly important because of its proximity to planned AI data centers and high-voltage power infrastructure. While Olympus’s geology isn’t quite as productive as the company’s core acreage, the deal enhances its ability to serve future energy demand at scale, while deepening its integration across the value chain.

Operationally, EQT continues to outpace expectations. Drilling efficiency has improved markedly, and completed lateral footage per day is up 20% year-over-year. That enables the company to reduce frac crews and lower well costs. Management raised full-year production guidance and trimmed capital spending, reflecting both improved productivity and cost discipline. Net debt has declined from $9.1 billion at the end of 2024 to $8.1 billion and is projected to fall below $7 billion by year-end, even after the Olympus deal. And unlike the large global oil companies navigating Middle East exposure and shipping chokepoints, its asset base is rooted firmly on US soil, providing a measure of geopolitical insulation amid fresh tensions in that region. 

Still, valuation is where things get tricky, especially with the stock rallying more than 50% over the last 52 weeks. EQT now trades at nearly 90x earnings, well above the sector median of 14, and carries a 5.1x price-to-sales multiple vs. an industry average of just 1.4. While its price-to-book ratio of 1.6 is more reasonable (the sector median is 1.5), it’s clear the market has already priced in the bull case. And with 2026 production unhedged, any downturn in gas prices or weaker-than-expected demand from new data centers could weigh on this now-lofty valuation. 

Analyst sentiment remains constructive: of the 29 firms covering the stock, 21 rate it a “buy” or “overweight,” with an average price target near $61. That implies modest upside from the stock’s current price of $58 per share. For existing shareholders, the company looks to be a compelling “hold,” offering domestic energy exposure without international flashpoints and attractive free cash flow. 

But for prospective buyers, patience may be the watchword. With sky-high expectations already built into the stock price, the next opportunity may come not from another blockbuster quarter but from a moment of market uncertainty when better entry points present themselves.

Expand Energy: post-merger synergies are driving financial success

If EQT is the legacy giant getting leaner, Expand Energy is the merger-born juggernaut hitting its stride. Formed from the combination of Chesapeake and Southwestern Energy, Expand Energy has quickly emerged as one of the most efficient — and ambitious — natural gas producers in the United States. The company is forecasting $2 billion in free cash flow in 2025, even while ramping up production and investing for growth. By 2026, that figure could climb to $3 billion, fueled by higher volume and improved economics. 

For a firm that just recently joined the S&P 500 and secured investment-grade ratings from the major credit rating agencies, Expand’s transformation has been swift and so far shareholder-friendly. At the operational level, the company is targeting average production of 7.1 Bcfe/d (billion cubic feet per day) this year, rising to 7.5 Bcfe/d in 2026. Capital discipline has remained front and center: Costs are flat or down slightly vs. 2024, despite running 12 rigs with plans to expand to 15 rigs by year-end.

Impressively, merger math is also kicking in fast: Management now sees synergies between the Chesapeake-Southwestern combination producing roughly $400 million of added value in 2025, and $500 million in 2026. And while EQT has bulked up through vertical integration, Expand is leaning on scale and agility. Its twin strongholds in the Haynesville and Appalachian basins give it a rare ability to satisfy both the surging gas appetite of US data-center clusters and the world’s LNG buyers. The forthcoming NG3 pipeline, rated for up to 2.5 Bcf/d, will provide a direct expressway from Appalachia to Louisiana export terminals, converting formerly land-locked molecules into high-margin global cargo. 

At the same time, management is advancing a more sophisticated downstream strategy, exploring firm supply agreements with hyperscalers and power producers. These long-term contracts, particularly if struck at premiums to index pricing, could inject a dose of revenue stability into what otherwise can be a highly volatile market, offering investors more predictable cash flow.

On valuation, Expand looks reasonably priced compared to its growth profile. Stock trades around $120 per share or 22x forward earnings, a slight premium to the sector median of 14x, but one that’s arguably justified by the company’s strong cost trajectory, scale advantages and expanding free cash flow. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.2 and price-to-book of 1.6 are also higher than peer averages, but not unreasonably so, especially in light of a projected $2.5 billion in annual unhedged free cash flow. Analyst sentiment backs up this optimism: 27 of 30 firms covering the stock rate it a “buy” or “overweight” with an average price target of $130 per share.

In short, Expand Energy may not be the cheapest gas stock on the market, but it’s one of the most dynamic. The post-merger execution has been impressive, the capital allocation story is solid and the macro setup—rising US power demand and LNG export growth—remains supportive. For investors looking to balance scale, efficiency and growth potential in one name, the company makes a compelling case. Taking all of the above into account, we rate the shares a “buy.” 

Antero: a tactical operator with a promising future

Last but not least, Antero Resources has achieved a premium position in the market by thinking differently — focusing not just on volume but also on pricing power, capital efficiency and market access. In Q1, that strategy paid off. Antero brought in $337 million in free cash flow and sold its gas for $0.36 more per unit than the industry benchmark. On top of that, it secured long-term contracts to export liquid gas (LPG) at prices more than $2.00 per barrel above the US standard. the company isn’t just pumping gas. It’s making sure every unit sells for more.

That strategic advantage comes into sharper focus when you follow the money. Earlier this year, when shares dipped into the low $30s, management pounced, buying back 2.7 million shares at a bargain price. The move was both opportunistic and telling: Instead of rigidly sticking to debt-first discipline, Antero showed it can pivot fast when the market presents an opportunity. With $1 billion still authorized for future buybacks, the company has plenty of firepower left to keep playing offense.

Still, even with solid financials, there are a few pressure points worth keeping an eye on. In Q1, Antero’s total cash operating costs edged up to $2.56 per Mcfe, slightly above its own forecast. Management chalked that up to higher fuel and transportation expenses tied to gas prices, but that development did tighten profit margins. As a result, the company has trimmed its full-year free cash flow outlook to about $1.16 billion. That said, pricing trends look more favorable in 2026, and Antero has hedged some future production using collars. That’s giving it a safety net on the downside, while still leaving room to benefit if prices climb.

Valuation, however, tells a more complicated story. Trading at 54x trailing earnings, Antero looks expensive against a sector median P/E of just 14. Moreover, the company’s price-to-sales and price-to-book multiples — 2.8 and 1.8, respectively — also sit well above industry norms. On paper, that makes the stock look expensive. But it might deserve that premium: Antero has one of the lowest breakeven costs in the business at $2.29 per Mcf, a concentrated and efficient position in Appalachia, and strong access to high-value Gulf Coast and export markets. For new investors, the key question is whether the market has already priced in those advantages.

Of the 26 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it a “buy” or “overweight,” with an average price target of $46 per share, offering some upside from current levels around $42 per share. For prospective buyers eyeing a fresh position, it might be prudent to wait for market turbulence or a sector-wide reset to unlock better entry math. For the time being, we rate the shares a “hold.” 

Investment takeaways

Natural gas is no longer just a bridge fuel. It’s becoming the backbone of a rewired global energy system. As missiles fly in the Middle East and AI superclusters sprout across America’s heartland, the strain on US energy infrastructure is growing. The winners won’t be the biggest producers — they’ll be the savviest: Companies that can monetize volatility, secure premium contracts and tap global markets while keeping costs low and discipline high.

In our view, Expand Energy stands out as a compelling choice in the energy sector. Since completing its merger with Chesapeake and Southwestern, the company has found its rhythm by boosting drilling efficiency, ramping production across the Haynesville and unlocking substantial cost savings through well-executed integration. With nearly $2 billion in free cash flow expected next year and up to $3 billion projected for 2026, Expand Energy is positioned to win both at home and abroad. Its expanding access to Gulf Coast LNG terminals, smarter downstream strategy and investor-friendly capital return plan only strengthen the case.

By contrast, EQT and Antero Resources offer more nuanced investment stories. Both companies bring solid operational track records, but much of that strength already appears priced in. With valuations running ahead of fundamentals, we view the two companies as quality holds, best suited for existing investors while others wait for more attractive entry points.

In today’s natural gas market, scale isn’t the only advantage — it’s how you use it that counts. The real edge lies in agility, market access and smart monetization. From Expand Energy’s fast-moving expansion strategy to Antero’s ability to command premium pricing, the winners in this next cycle will be the companies that treat natural gas not just as a commodity but as a strategic asset.

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Andrew Prochnow, Luckbox analyst-at-large, has traded the global financial markets for more than 15 years, including 10 years as a professional options trader.

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