• Carlsberg and Anheuser-Busch InBev have delivered standout returns in 2025, rising nearly 50% and 40%, respectively.
• Valuations for the two brewers remain reasonable, with stock in both trading below sector P/E medians.
• The companies offer a mix of global scale, premium growth and improving free cash flow.
• After strong rallies, further upside may be harder won —making well-timed pullbacks key.

Summer unofficially begins with Memorial Day, and Americans are happily indulging in beer, baseball and barbecues. But in 2025, it’s not just consumers reaching for a cold one. Investors have been snapping up shares in Carlsberg (CABGY) and Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), two giants of brewing. Both have posted sizzling gains this year while much of the consumer staples sector has lagged behind.

Let’s find out what’s driving outperformance in these stocks, how each is navigating a mixed macro landscape and whether the rallies are in the early stages or if they’re starting to lose their fizz. 

A European brewer rides strategic momentum

Carlsberg may not have the same household name recognition in the US as Heineken or Budweiser, but the Danish brewing giant remains one of the most influential players in the global alcohol sector. The company dates back to 1847 and has a broad portfolio of premium beers, non-alcoholic beverages and soft drinks. It operates in over 150 markets and generates more than a third of its volume in some fast-growing Asian economies, particularly in Vietnam and Malaysia, where it holds leading market share.

But Carlsberg is navigating a mix of headwinds and strategic pivots. While beer consumption softened in several key regions, the company has managed to outperform local peers. It is maintaining market share even as volume declines. And while overall sales of beer dipped in Q3, the company’s premium product portfolio and non-beer categories continue to gain traction. This nuanced performance highlights the company’s geographic and product diversity, even as broader sentiment in the alcohol sector faces headwinds. 

The bigger headline, however, may be the company’s recent $4 billion acquisition of Britvic—a British soft drinks firm and Europe’s largest independent Pepsi bottler. While Carlsberg expects meaningful synergies from the deal, skeptics have pointed to the transaction’s limited strategic overlap and uninspiring return profile. The M&A move has also elevated the company’s debt profile, raising questions about future capital allocation priorities. Still, the Britvic integration positions Carlsberg to add scale in non-alcoholic beverages — an increasingly important battleground as consumer tastes shift globally.

Meanwhile, Carlsberg is doubling down on its internal transformation. Its “SAIL” strategy — focused on premiumization, cost control and accelerating Asian growth — is aimed squarely at boosting margins and reinvigorating topline expansion after several years of sluggish organic growth. Early signs have been encouraging: Branded Carlsberg volume is up sharply in premium-positioned markets, and management has reiterated guidance for 4%–6% operating profit growth in 2024 despite broader macro headwinds. The company has also exited its Russian operations, removing a lingering geopolitical overhang from the investment narrative.

In addition, investor sentiment has been surprisingly positive. After a tough stretch, Carlsberg shares have rebounded sharply in 2025 — up nearly 50% year to date — as the market has reassessed the company’s underlying fundamentals. Whether that momentum can continue will depend on execution: Integrating Britvic, unlocking continued growth and ultimately justifying a higher multiple.

Britvic acquisition boosts Q1 earnings, buoys sentiment

Carlsberg may not be the flashiest name in the beer aisle, but in 2025, it’s been one of the market’s stealth success stories. After years of steady but unspectacular performance, shares have surged nearly 50% year to date. The increase has been fueled less by headline-grabbing growth and more by something subtler: strategic execution. 

The company’s $4 billion Britvic acquisition isn’t just padding revenue — it’s reshaping how investors view the business. Q1 results were a clear indicator of some key trends: headline revenue jumped 17.4% to about $3 billion, but most of that gain stemmed from Britvic’s contribution. Excluding Britvic, organic revenue dipped 1.5%, and volume fell 2.3%, against a sluggish consumer backdrop. Even so, there are signs the underlying engine is humming in the right places. 

China, Carlsberg’s largest market by volume, delivered a 2% uptick in sales, buoyed by demand for premium offerings in urban centers. India continued to shine with double-digit growth in volume, while the UK and Ireland posted solid gains on the back of strong performance from PepsiCo brands and Carlsberg’s premium labels. Meanwhile, management reaffirmed full-year guidance of 1%–5% organic operating profit growth and held firm on its projection for Britvic to contribute $315 million in operating profit this year. Encouragingly, synergies are materializing and early wins in key markets suggest the Britvic acquisition may be more than just a financial boost — it may be the catalyst for a new chapter.

From a valuation standpoint, Carlsberg still offers a compelling setup, especially in light of its 2025 run. The stock trades at 19.9x trailing earning, modestly below the global beverages sector median of 22.7. That discount may not fully reflect the company’s strengthening fundamentals: consistent cash generation, a growing premium mix and long-term exposure to high-growth markets in Asia. The company’s 1.8x price-to-sales ratio is slightly above the sector average, but that premium seems warranted given the Britvic consolidation and Carlsberg’s increasingly diversified beverage portfolio.

Meanwhile, its price-to-book ratio of 4.9 may look steep at first glance, but is arguably supported by a rock-solid balance sheet, reliable shareholder returns and durable brand strength. Carlsberg has also steered clear of overleveraging to fund Britvic, opting instead for a steady, disciplined approach to capital allocation, including dividends and tactical buybacks. In a sector where financial prudence can be as valuable as growth, the company’s strategic prowess stands out.

Wall Street sentiment suggests a measured but constructive view. Of the 24 analysts covering Carlsberg, 13 rate the stock a “buy” or “overweight,” while nine remain on the sidelines with “hold” ratings. The average price target hovers near $29, roughly in line with current levels but may not yet reflect the full potential of the Britvic integration or the company’s expanding footprint in high-growth markets.

All told, Carlsberg doesn’t scream bargain but does offer a compelling blend of brand durability, earnings resilience and global diversification at a reasonable price. For investors looking to balance income and growth in a defensive European consumer play, it stands as a credible choice.

Shares of Anheuser-Busch Inbev have also outperformed

Anheuser-Busch InBev is a familiar name to many investors, but the story in 2025 feels like a fresh chapter. The stock is up nearly 40% year to date, as the world’s largest brewer moves past the lingering overhang of its SABMiller acquisition and reasserts its global strength with improving margins, solid earnings and a renewed focus on returning capital to shareholders. The company holds an estimated 30% global beer market share and boasts a premium portfolio that includes eight of the top 10 beer brands worldwide. Volume pressures persist in markets like China and Argentina, but premiumization trends, expanding digital sales and growth in non-alcoholic offerings are cushioning the blow. 

Anheuser-Busch InBev kicked off 2025 with a strong performance, as EBITDA rose nearly 8% in the first quarter and non-alcoholic beer volume surged 34% — a clear sign its evolving product mix is resonating with changing consumer preferences. While total volume dipped 2.2%, in part because of the timing of holiday demand compared to last year, revenue per liter climbed 3.7%, reflecting healthy pricing power. In the US, brand investments are gaining traction, with Michelob Ultra and Corona Cero both picking up share. Meanwhile, in Latin America and Europe, premium offerings and digital sales strategies continue to fuel double-digit bottom-line growth, highlighting the brewer’s global breadth and operational momentum.

From a valuation standpoint, Anheuser-Busch InBev still looks attractively priced. The stock trades at 20.3x trailing earnings, comfortably below the sector median of 22.6 and just 1.7 times book value, vs. 2.7 for its peers. Its price-to-sales ratio of 2.3 is modestly elevated, but that premium reflects the company’s vast global footprint, strong profitability, and accelerating free cash flow. Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish: 24 of the 27 analysts covering the stock rate it a “buy” or “overweight,” with an average price target of $80 — implying meaningful upside from the current price of $69 per share. For investors looking to diversify with a global consumer name that offers expanding margins, strong brands and capital return potential, Anheuser-Busch InBev stands out as a compelling pick.

Investment takeaways 

Carlsberg and Anheuser-Busch InBev have both delivered standout performances in 2025, with shares up nearly 50% and 40%, respectively. These rallies reflect not just improving company-specific fundamentals, but a broader investor reappraisal of the global brewing landscape, one that increasingly rewards margin resilience, premium brand equity and international scale in an otherwise cautious consumer staples environment. Both companies have executed well on premiumization, digital distribution and cost control, delivering earnings stability despite lingering macro headwinds.

From a valuation standpoint, both stocks remain reasonably attractive even after their recent climbs. Carlsberg continues to trade at a modest discount to sector peers on earnings, while offering a compelling blend of European defensiveness and emerging market exposure. Anheuser-Busch InBev appears even more attractively positioned, supported by a strong free cash flow yield, renewed buyback activity and overwhelmingly bullish analyst consensus.

Still, with much of the recent re-rating already priced in, further upside may depend on new catalysts, be it tariff relief, a rebound in key market volume or a broader shift toward risk-on sentiment. For now, Anheuser-Busch InBev arguably stands out as the stronger investment case, offering a more compelling blend of valuation, momentum and capital return potential.

For investors anticipating a more range-bound phase following the sharp year-to-date rallies, neutral strategies offer a practical way to stay involved without chasing momentum. One example — cash-secured puts — a strategy that generates income while positioning to accumulate shares at lower levels. Selling out-of-the-money puts on Carlsberg or Anheuser-Busch InBev near recent technical support can provide attractive premiums if the stocks trade sideways, or a favorable entry point if they pull back. For those with a constructive long-term view but short-term caution, this approach offers a way to remain engaged while letting the market come to you.

Andrew Prochnow, Luckbox analyst-at-large, has traded the global financial markets for more than 15 years, including 10 years as a professional options trader.

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