Betting Against the Political Polls

Pollsters fared badly in the 2020 elections, especially down-ballot. Were prediction markets a better bet? Forecasters are a shifty bunch, adept at concocting preemptive excuses and post hoc narratives for why their projections are right, no matter what happens. They eagerly point out the stupidity of betting markets, such as political prediction market PredictIt.org, yet … Continued