The Normal Deviate

Probability Matters
Get serious about investing by attaching a numerical probability to every trade It’s fun to speculate about cultural, political or economic events that might happen…

Liquid Assets

The Prediction Trade

In the News

Home & Garden

Thyme is Money
Savings sprout up in do-it-yourself herb and veggie gardens

The Rockhound


In the News

The Technician


Do Diligence

Adding AI to Your Portfolio
Separate truth from fiction in the hype surrounding artificial-intelligence stocks, and remain mindful of exposure Investors who’ve been around the block—and their younger proteges who’ve…


Cherry Picks

Food for Thought
Digesting the volatility, correlation and capitalization of food-related stocks
Hype and Skew
Hyped-up stocks can have unusual option pricing with atypical option skew  Look at prices of the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes for the April…
The Wisdom of Crowds
To predict next year’s stock prices, look where investors are putting their money New variants of COVID-19 might drive stock prices lower, or President Joe…
Smart Inflation Hedges
Looking to take the sting out of an investment’s shrinking value? Ethereum and bitcoin have been anything but stable. Think gold.  Is cryptocurrency the new…