The Normal Deviate

Probability Matters
Get serious about investing by attaching a numerical probability to every trade It’s fun to speculate about cultural, political or economic events that might happen…

Liquid Assets

Record High

David Bowie
A Sound Investment
The public can profit from music royalties through bonds, ETFs and online platforms

In the News

Fettle & Fitness

The Rockhound


In the News

The Technician

Essential Investing
Consumer staples may seem boring, but there’s nothing tedious about turning $1 into $5,000


Do Diligence

Adding AI to Your Portfolio
Separate truth from fiction in the hype surrounding artificial-intelligence stocks, and remain mindful of exposure Investors who’ve been around the block—and their younger proteges who’ve…


Cherry Picks

Hype and Skew
Hyped-up stocks can have unusual option pricing with atypical option skew  Look at prices of the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes for the April…
The Wisdom of Crowds
To predict next year’s stock prices, look where investors are putting their money New variants of COVID-19 might drive stock prices lower, or President Joe…
Smart Inflation Hedges
Looking to take the sting out of an investment’s shrinking value? Ethereum and bitcoin have been anything but stable. Think gold.  Is cryptocurrency the new…