(Bickering for Better) Lawmakers’ disagreements over government spending—from the bipartisan infrastructure bill to President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda—have at times seemed insurmountable. Concerns about inflation have played a…
A veteran of the $48.1 billion industry tells what it’s like protecting the rich and famous Here’s how a rookie mistake provided the founding principles for a thriving business. Todd…
A series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence revolutionized commerce and science. But can it help traders pick the right stocks? A 13th-century Italian mathematician known these days as…
The year 2022 will mark the demise of cryptocurrency as we know it When forecasters get a prediction right, critics often chalk it up to little more than coincidence. But let’s…
Celebs, consumers and investors are flocking to Allbirds, a footwear unicorn made from sheep Before Allbirds appeared on the Nasdaq, its shoes appeared on the feet of Paul McCartney, Matthew…
Topics
Philip Tetlock, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, has helped a generation of forecasters hone their prediction skills. At the…
Making—or losing—money in prediction markets can change beliefs. But how does that work? Stock and options traders are continually trying to predict the future.…
(Bickering for Better) Lawmakers’ disagreements over government spending—from the bipartisan infrastructure bill to President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda—have at times seemed insurmountable. Concerns…
The year 2022 will mark the demise of cryptocurrency as we know it When forecasters get a prediction right, critics often chalk it up to little…
Trends
Probability Reigns
Unless we know the chances they’ll come true, predictions mean almost nothing The new year brings resolutions and predictions. Spend time with friends or family…
America’s Top Bottles
A whiskey and a tequila that will raise your spirits Spirits sales in the United States rose 1.3% in 2020 despite pandemic-induced lockdowns, according to…
Is Cancel Culture Toxic?
Intelligence Squared U.S.invites some of the world’s brightest thinkers to debate issues of the day. The organization was founded in New York in 2006 to…
The Luckbox Bookshelf
New and not-so-new books that captured our attention this month Far too often, book reviews drive away readers. But reviews present just one stranger’s view,…
Midterm Elections are the Big X-Factor in 2022. Will History Repeat?
The 2022 trading year is unique because it features midterm elections in November—such years are historically characterized by weaker returns and heightened volatility.
Cartoon Clairvoyance
The Simpsons displays an uncanny ability to tap into the zeitgeist and a knack for predicting the future Methods of predicting the future include old-school…
Meet Joseph Barbuto
Home/Office location Long Island, NY Age 59 Years trading 25 How did you start trading? Around 1987, I was working for a small electronics company…
The Luckbox Bookshelf
New and not-so-new books that captured our attention this month The Man of Numbers: Fibonacci’s Arithmetic Revolution By Keith Devlin In this scholarly 2011 biography…
Is Inflation Transitory?
You can bet on it. Literally. By now, just about everyone has heard about—if not felt—the rise of inflation. And as the top-of-mind question evolved…
Rockhound Picks the Grammys
The creation and consumption of music have changed profoundly. So many artists are competing for attention that the average listener may know the names of…
Rockin’ the Occult
A look at rock ‘n’ rollers’ infatuation with the supernatural Rock ‘n’ roll often embodies the paranormal. In the late 1960s, bands like Coven…
Private Security
A veteran of the $48.1 billion industry tells what it’s like protecting the rich and famous Here’s how a rookie mistake provided the founding principles…
High Art
Everydays—The First 5000 Days, a JPG file created by the digital artist known as Beeple, sold a year ago at an online Christie’s auction for…
Your 2022 Physique
Here’s what will determine how your physical presence will change as another year unfolds The two paths to fitness in 2022 couldn’t differ more. There’s…
Trades
The biotechnology sector was one of the worst underperformers in…
Technical analysis of stock prices indicates the markets’ “everything bubble” may burst in 2022 Unhelpful pundits often make technical analysis seem terribly complicated. But the…
U.S. equity indexes have hit historic highs, but the price action included periods of drawdowns throughout last year. Some drawdowns were related to negative U.S.-China…
Traders benefit from understanding market trends that repeat over time While the saying “history repeats itself” may seem like a nauseating cliche, it often holds…
Predicting the future price of black gold isn’t easy The economy has apparently withstood this year’s 45% rise in the price of oil, but monetary…
Earning Season, Birds of a Feather Flock Together Earning Season “officially” begins with the big banks. See the graphic below that shows the number of…
Tactics
Standard deviations can help predict the price of futures anytime between listing and expiration Futures contracts lock in the price of a commodity or index.…
The bulls have been in charge since March of 2020, but if sentiment changes, it’s important to know how to short the market—as a standalone…
Sharp corrections in the stock market tend to offer fresh opportunities to sell volatility, but is it better to focus on short-duration or long-duration trades…
“Expected Move” refers to the market’s expectation for future movement in a given underlying, and this simple calculation can be used by market participants to…
In the financial markets, the term “delisting” refers to the removal of a stock’s shares from an exchange. But a delisting event doesn’t necessarily mean…
Implied volatility tends to get crushed after an earnings event, but research suggests that short premium trades enjoy high win rates both before after the…
To predict next year’s stock prices, look where investors are putting their money New variants of COVID-19 might drive stock prices lower, or President Joe…
Looking to take the sting out of an investment’s shrinking value? Ethereum and bitcoin have been anything but stable. Think gold. Is cryptocurrency the new…
A new free tool enables investors to see the future of their trades tastytrade is offering investors a new free tool called Lookback that provides…
