Topics
Luckbox Leans in with Phil Tetlock
Philip Tetlock, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, has helped a generation of forecasters hone their prediction skills. At the…
Money Over Mind
Making—or losing—money in prediction markets can change beliefs. But how does that work?   Stock and options traders are continually trying to predict the future.…
Adversarial Collaboration
(Bickering for Better) Lawmakers’ disagreements over government spending—from the bipartisan infrastructure bill to President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda—have at times seemed insurmountable. Concerns…
Crypto Doomsday
The year 2022 will mark the demise of cryptocurrency as we know it   When forecasters get a prediction right, critics often chalk it up to little…

The Normal Deviate

Probability Reigns
Unless we know the chances they’ll come true, predictions mean almost nothing  The new year brings resolutions and predictions. Spend time with friends or family…

Liquid Assets

America’s Top Bottles
A whiskey and a tequila that will raise your spirits Spirits sales in the United States rose 1.3% in 2020 despite pandemic-induced lockdowns, according to…

Sentiment

Is Cancel Culture Toxic?
Intelligence Squared U.S.invites some of the world’s brightest thinkers to debate issues of the day. The organization was founded in New York in 2006 to…

Book Value

The Luckbox Bookshelf
New and not-so-new books that captured our attention this month Far too often, book reviews drive away readers. But reviews present just one stranger’s view,…

In the News

Fake Financial News

Cartoon Clairvoyance
The Simpsons displays an uncanny ability to tap into the zeitgeist and a knack for predicting the future Methods of predicting the future include old-school…

Trades

In the News

The Technician

Dark Days Ahead?
Technical analysis of stock prices indicates the markets’ “everything bubble” may burst in 2022 Unhelpful pundits often make technical analysis seem terribly complicated. But the…

Macro

US-China Trade Impacts Aussie Dollar
U.S. equity indexes have hit historic highs, but the price action included periods of drawdowns throughout last year. Some drawdowns were related to negative U.S.-China…

Do Diligence

Essential Market Forecasting Tools
Traders benefit from understanding market trends that repeat over time While the saying “history repeats itself” may seem like a nauseating cliche, it often holds…

Futures

Slippery Oil Prices
Predicting the future price of black gold isn’t easy  The economy has apparently withstood this year’s 45% rise in the price of oil, but monetary…

Cherry Picks

The One with All the Earnings
Earning Season, Birds of a Feather Flock Together Earning Season “officially” begins with the big banks. See the graphic below that shows the number of…
Tactics
A Prognostication Tool
Standard deviations can help predict the price of futures anytime between listing and expiration Futures contracts lock in the price of a commodity or index.…
The Wisdom of Crowds
To predict next year’s stock prices, look where investors are putting their money New variants of COVID-19 might drive stock prices lower, or President Joe…
Smart Inflation Hedges
Looking to take the sting out of an investment’s shrinking value? Ethereum and bitcoin have been anything but stable. Think gold.  Is cryptocurrency the new…
Paper Trading Just Got Better
A new free tool enables investors to see the future of their trades  tastytrade is offering investors a new free tool called Lookback that provides…