Hedging Political Bets

Trading in political markets closely resembles trading in financial markets: Do the homework, make an educated decision and hedge.  “Sure things” aren’t always so sure, and that lesson rings true to political traders’ ears. Fortunes were lost betting big on Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election. Now, in 2020, Joe Biden leads nearly every poll. But … Continued

Derek Phillips’ Best Bets

What will be the Electoral College margin in the 2020 presidential election? Buy NO on all Democratic positions In general, I don’t endorse betting on President Donald Trump to win reelection this year, but if you feel the need to make that bet, this is the smartest way. Buying against every bracket for the Democrats … Continued

Biden’s VP: Buy the News, Sell the Rumor

When it comes to betting on Joe Biden’s VP, prediction market prices tell one story. But the news can tell another. Political prediction market traders began betting on who will be the Democratic vice-presidential nominee long before the party settled on a candidate for the top of the ticket. In the markets, where cents represent … Continued

Derek Phillips’ Best Bets

A super trader who’s ranked among the top 100 traders on PredictIt’s leaderboards shares tips on which markets have attracted his attention—and his money Which party will win North Carolina in the 2020 presidential election? Buy Democrat YES or Republican NO under 50¢ Traders love to ponder the Democrats’ chances in Wisconsin and Arizona, but … Continued

Political Predictions

A pundit with a knack for picking winning trades on Predictit shares his latest best bets Will the U.S. economy hit 5.0%+ GDP growth by year-end 2020? Buy NO under 35¢ As one trader pointed out, this is essentially betting on the worst recession in American history. Dark as that sounds, this outcome is within … Continued

How I Turned $400 into $400,000 Trading Political Futures

I’ve always been a bit of a gambler. I went to college during the poker boom of the early 2000s, when everyone wanted to become the next Chris Moneymaker. I thought my experience playing cards with my grandfather and drafting fantasy football teams meant I had an advantage. It didn’t. Later, during my hour-long drives … Continued