Trump and Biden’s Bones

Let’s calculate the probabilities of the septuagenarian presidential candidates making it through a full term or being diagnosed with dementia. The probabilities are expressed as rolls of the dice. Regardless of who wins the 2020 election, America may soon have its oldest president ever. Ronald Reagan currently holds the record at 77 years, 349 days, … Continued

Die Probability

Tackling the dicey subject of calculating the probability of contagion, and the mortality of the coronavirus Americans are struggling to understand the risk of catching and transmitting Covid-19. Should they feel 10 times as scared if confirmed cases increase tenfold in their city or state? Let’s figure it out. Daily risk Attempts at rationalizing risk … Continued