The Cost of Overconfidence

Hubris erects a barrier to good forecasting. Unchecked, it could prove expensive.  With SPACs all the rage, it’s important not to get too carried away by the rhetoric. Overconfidence can be expensive. This is true in geopolitics, public health or the stock market. From the 1961 Bay of Pigs debacle to the slow response to … Continued

Open-Minded Forecasting in a Deeply Polarized World

Superforecasters share three strategies for making accurate predictions Americans are more polarized than ever, and their split along two ideological extremes complicates a forecaster’s job. Polarization stresses feelings over facts, confounding the separation of signal from noise that’s essential to forecasting accuracy. Also, the forecaster’s own biases and preferences can be harder to recognize—and set … Continued