Financial Markets, Business and the Economy

The S&P 500 suffers two 10% or more “corrections” in 2024: One in March because of questions and concern about the Federal Reserve’s bank lending program, and the second in September when polls suggest one of the two unpopular major presidential candidates will be elected. Look for a strong rally in November-December, regardless of who wins the election. 

Emerging market stocks rebound dramatically in the second half of 2024, anchored by a broad decline in the U.S. dollar. One of the top performers of the year from emerging markets is Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV (KOF).  

The Fed does not cut interest rates until the third quarter of 2024. 

The Department of Justice wins its landmark antitrust case against Alphabet-owned Google (GOOGL).  

Alphabet spins off YouTube in a boon for Google shareholders who receive stock in the new public company, which quickly exceeds the market value of Netflix (NFLX). 

A string of weak Treasury auctions draws attention to the trillions in refinancing required by the U.S. Treasury Department and presses the 10-year bond back to the 5% range.   

No housing market crash. The 30-year mortgage rate remains above 7% for most of the year. 

Two years after telling viewers to avoid Meta Platforms (META) at $90 per share, Jim Cramer tells viewers to buy Meta … at $360 per share.  

Conversational AI assistants and co-pilots become ubiquitous. Multi-modal AI platforms and interfaces transcend language and enter the realm of perception. Yes, that’s scary.

Nvidia (NVDA) continues to dominate the chip market, and its stock continues to outperform the broader market. 

A fed pivot on interest rates raises concerns about global liquidity and leads to a drop in Bitcoin back under $30,000, but a strong Q4 rally takes it over $60,000.  

Gambling stocks outperform the market. Penn Gaming (PENN) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) stocks both increase by more than 40%.

 Demand for GLP-1 inhibitor drugs for weight loss such as Ozempic and Wegovy will exceed $10 billion, more than double current pharma industry forecasts. 

Domestic Politics

Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland delivers a keynote speech during the Democratic Convention, sparking early chatter around a 2028 election run.   

Despite concerns about the border and a slowing economy, Democrats win the House of Representatives by focusing on women’s rights in close district races.   

Joe Biden will not be the nominee of the Democratic Party.  

Paul Krugman, New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize winner in economics, calls for Congress to provide stimulus checks to Americans to help spur the economy and prevent a recession in 2025. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fades early in the 2024 primaries, and his waning political career mirrors another former Florida Governor: Jeb Bush. 

Despite repeated threats on social media, no American celebrities leave the country because of the results of the 2024 presidential election.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will receive over 10% of the votes in three states. 

International Politics

Mexico elects Claudia Scheinbaum as its first-ever female president.  

China doesn’t invade Taiwan but forces a showdown with U.S. Naval ships in the South China Sea that prompts an emergency summit.    

Congress bungles national security by failing to allocate money for nuclear icebreakers in the Arctic. Russia and China continue to establish footholds on the “Roof of the World,” which promises to become the next geopolitical flashpoint. 

Europe continues to move to the right politically because of pushback against Net Zero and immigration policies. More countries initiate steps to leave the European Union, straining the economic bloc’s stability.  

Sports

In six games, the Atlanta Braves beat the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 World Series.  

Chicago Bears 2021 No. 1 draft pick Justin Fields becomes the 2024 starting quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders. 

In a rematch of Super Bowl 57, the Philadelphia Eagles blow out the Kansas City Chiefs, but the sports commentators are more interested in Taylor Swift, who’s sitting in a box with Kamala Harris. 

The New York Rangers finally crack the Eastern Conference for the first time in the Igor Era but the upstart Vancouver Canucks win the Stanley Cup Finals. 

Rumors swirl that Swift will replace Harris as vice president on the Democratic ticket. 

Baseball rookies of the year are Carter Young of the Texas Rangers in the American League and Jackson Chourio of the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League.  

France defeats England in the UEFA Euro 2024 soccer final. Harry Kane leads the tournament in goals.  

The Chicago Bears tap Marvin Harrison as the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. He’s the first wide receiver to achieve that feat since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996 and only the fourth in NFL history.