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Factfulness Meets Superforecasting

By Ed McKinley

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January 25, 2024

…we can assign a probability closer to 0%. So, information is the stuff of good predictions. But what interferes with good forecasting? Bias: Forecasting errors that occur in a systematic…
Business Forecasting Models

By Warren Hatch

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June 2, 2021

…make money forecasting the financial markets, politics, crypto, sports and other events. Boost forecasting accuracy with Good Judgment’s Online Training Based on the book Superforecasting by Phil Tetlock, this course…
Open-Minded Forecasting in a Deeply Polarized World

By Warren Hatch

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March 17, 2021

…confounding the separation of signal from noise that’s essential to forecasting accuracy. Also, the forecaster’s own biases and preferences can be harder to recognize—and set aside—when society at large is…
The Prediction Trade

By Ed McKinley

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December 14, 2020

…sports, warfare or just about anything else. Search “Superforecasting,” and most of the results point to a book that came out five years ago: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of…
A Superforecaster Looks Ahead

By Ed McKinley

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January 25, 2024

…eager to hear Hatch’s forecasts and his thoughts on forecasting in this Luckbox Q&A. What was this year’s biggest breakthrough in the science of forecasting? In terms of…
Forecasting Futures

By Christopher Vecchio

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January 15, 2024

The year 2023 has been remarkable. It began with high volatility and depressed asset prices, only to see stocks surge while volatility fell back to levels not seen consistently…
The Superforecasters

By Ed McKinley

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December 14, 2020

How a college-based team of students, faculty and volunteers bested government intelligence community prognosticators and gave birth to Superforecasting A husband-and-wife team of scientists became giants in the field of forecasting…
Adversarial Collaboration

By Warren Hatch

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January 10, 2022

…how each side fares. The idea of adversarial collaboration, with its deep roots in the scientific literature, is an integral part of effective forecasting. Superforecasting is a data-driven empirical process…
Forecasting Price Patterns

By Tim Knight

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October 23, 2019

Every culture develops its own brand of futurism. From time immemorial, people have spun tales of clairvoyance, created magical totems like crystal balls and paid homage to legendary prognosticators…
Essential Market Forecasting Tools

By James Blakeway

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January 4, 2022

Traders benefit from understanding market trends that repeat over time While the saying “history repeats itself” may seem like a nauseating cliche, it often holds true in economics, finance…

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