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Where Are We Headed?

By Ed McKinley

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January 9, 2024

…in this annual forecasting issue. Our effort in these pages to bring clarity to the science of forecasting includes a mashup of two of our favorite movements: Factfulness and Superforecasting. …
What Gamblers Can Learn From Superforecasters

By Warren Hatch

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August 9, 2021

…quality of forecasting. Another essential component is practice. On Good Judgment Inc.’s public platform, GJ Open, anyone can try forecasting—from predicting the next NBA winner to estimating the future price…
Money Over Mind

By Mike Reddy

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January 10, 2022

…Hanson, and one of us had done research in forecasting using statistics and machine learning. We dove deeper into the literature on forecasting, reading papers from economists, such as Justin…
Is AI Exciting New Tech or an Existential Threat?

By Ed McKinley

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January 25, 2024

…of the University of Pennsylvania. The XPT was conducted at the Forecasting Research Institute. Forecasting guru Philip Tetlock served as the XPTs chief scientist and helped lead the Superforecasting work…
The Cost of Overconfidence

By Warren Hatch

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April 28, 2021

Hubris erects a barrier to good forecasting. Unchecked, it could prove expensive. With SPACs all the rage, it’s important not to get too carried away by the rhetoric. Overconfidence can…
Rachel Bitecofer Knows Partisan Politics

By Luckbox

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June 8, 2020

…no stranger to political forecasting, skyrocketing in popularity after nailing the 2018 midterms with near total accuracy. And to prediction market traders who heed her predictions, Bitecofer has proven her…
Making Rain

By Mike Reddy

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June 23, 2022

…thousands of miles above the Earth’s surface. Forecasting has come a long way. Event-based prediction markets represent yet another tool for weather forecasting, albeit a terrestrial one still in its…
Forecasts for Farmers

By Vonetta Logan

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November 23, 2022

…issue of Luckbox is all about forecasting.Onlyfarmers.com? I ordered my Farmers’ Almanac from Amazon for $7.99. When it arrived, I was shocked at how flimsy it’s become. The newsprint seemed…
Politics Has a Futures Market

By Mike Reddy

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October 23, 2019

…of winning or losing money, is more accurate at forecasting political events than traditional methods of measuring public opinion, such as polling. Whether or not they actually are more accurate…
FALSE PROPHETS

By luckbox magazine

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December 20, 2021

…stop funding your IRA. Nostradamus also understood the value of forecasting big events. Why go small when you can go big and really attract some attention? He also had the…

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