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Uncertain Political Futures

By Mike Reddy

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September 12, 2022

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew its longstanding no-action letter for political prediction market platform PredictIt. Luckbox asked its co-founder what that means for the future of political forecasting. A lot…
The Past as Prologue

By Vonetta Logan

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January 25, 2024

Luckbox has been publishing an annual forecasting issue for four years. That’s why I was running out of ideas for yet another column on the subject when I spied a…
An All-Star Panel Wades Into the Election Prediction Market Trading Pits

By Jeff Joseph

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October 31, 2024

Forecasting has been a preoccupation at Luckbox. Over the past six years we’ve taken several deep dives into the subject, but let’s also acknowledge forecasting is fun. And now that…
TPT Is Back!

By Luckbox

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March 25, 2021

…sports, financial markets, weather, the economy, pop culture and cryptocurrency. Despite the show’s rebranding and wider scope, the core focus remains the same: making money by forecasting future events. The…
Slippery Oil Prices

By Pete Mulmat

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January 4, 2022

…the spot market. To find out, forecasting exercises have been conducted to determine whether future prices of futures have predictive power in the present for the future pricing of oil….
The Last Picture

By luckbox magazine

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October 20, 2022

…and what’s next. But intrepid prognosticators thrive on conquering uncertainty, and thus Luckbox is forging ahead with its annual report on forecasting. Look for it in combination with the annual…
Luckbox Leans in with Phil Tetlock

By Luckbox

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January 11, 2022

…journalist Dan Gardner were co-authors of an influential New York Times bestseller, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. For this article, Tetlock agreed to field questions about adversarial collaboration,…
Dylan Ratigan Is Certain About Joe Biden’s VP Pick

By Luckbox

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June 26, 2020

…The Political Trade to discuss potential trading opportunities on PredictIt.org’s political prediction markets, in which traders can wager real money forecasting the outcomes of various political events. Harris, who at…
Kalshi: The Exchange for Everything

By Mike Reddy

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September 15, 2021

…forecasting. From the political prediction markets of PredictIt to the leaderboards of Good Judgment Open, bragging rights and profits abound for those with a prophetic edge. Kalshi co-founders Tarek Mansour,…
Prediction Markets for Prescient Political Punters

By Flip Pidot

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November 16, 2022

…prevents regulated prediction markets and event futures exchanges from listing markets tied to acts of war, that hasn’t stopped some of the smaller trading venues and forecasting platforms from asking…

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