• Gold prices have surged nearly 12% in 2025—trading at nearly $3,000 per ounce.
• Shares of Gold Fields have surged 37% year-to-date, boosted by better-than-expected earnings and the Windfall Project. 
• While valuations look elevated for major gold-mining companies, their stocks could go higher if the rally in gold rally continues. 

Gold prices have rallied about 12% in 2025, edging ever closer to the $3,000 per ounce milestone. But the real story is the 40%+ surge since the start of 2024—a rally that has transformed the gold market and sent gold miners into overdrive. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), for instance, is up 15% this year, outpacing the gains of physical gold and illustrating how mining stocks are thriving alongside the commodity.

Among the gold miners, Gold Fields (GFI) stands out—a new acquisition has improved the company’s outlook and contributed to a 37% increase in the company’s shares in 2025. Today, we dive into Gold Fields and offer a deeper review of the valuation dynamics shaping not just this company but the broader mining sector. 

Comparing Gold Fields and Newmont

Success in gold mining depends on a combination of growing revenue, cost control, effective management and, of course, profitability. The Gold Fields (GFI) Q4 earnings report showed some of the challenges the company faced in 2024 have been addressed, boosting optimism about its near-term outlook. But beyond its strength in earnings, the company holds another advantage: the Windfall Project.

This project, located in Canada, is poised to become a game-changer for Gold Fields. Expected to produce roughly 300,000 ounces of gold annually, it promises to be highly cost-effective, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) projected at around $760 per ounce—on the lower end of the mines in the company’s overall portfolio. Scheduled to come online in 2027, Windfall is poised to increase Gold Fields’ production and profitability.

Comparing the company’s valuation to that of Newmont (NEM)—the world’s largest gold miner—provides context on the industry and its dynamics in the 2025 gold market. Gold Fields is based in South Africa, while Newmont has headquarters in the U.S., but both companies oversee diverse portfolios of global mining operations.

Gold Fields posts better than expected earnings

Gold Fields delivered impressive results in Q4, but it was the full-year performance that truly captured the attention of investors. For 2024, the company reported $5.2 billion in sales, a notable increase from $4.5 billion in 2023. Net income surged to $1.25 billion, a considerable jump from $703 million the previous year. These strong earnings were driven largely by higher gold prices, which fueled a nearly 65% increase in free cash flow.

Despite those strong results, Gold Fields faced some operational difficulties in 2024. Because of unforeseen disruptions, the company reported an 8% year-over-year decline in production. Additionally, all-in sustaining costs increased from the previous year, driven by inflation and lower-than-expected gold sales in terms of volume. Rising costs are a concern, especially if the gold rally were to stall.

Looking at its valuation, Gold Fields trades with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9, well below the sector median of 17.5, indicating the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers. However, the company’s enterprise value-to-sale (EV/S) ratio of 3.80 and price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.40 are both elevated compared to sector medians of 1.70 and 1.30, respectively, suggesting investor euphoria may be pushing the company’s valuation beyond the levels supported by fundamentals. 

Analyst opinions on the company mirror this cautious outlook. Of the 11 analysts covering the stock, only four rate it a “buy”, with the remaining seven maintaining a “hold” rating. The average price target is $20 per share, slightly above Gold Fields’ current stock price. 

The transformative potential of the Windfall Project

Gold Fields’ Windfall Project is quickly emerging as one of the company’s most transformative assets, with the potential to dramatically enhance both its production capabilities and financial outlook. Located in Quebec, Windfall sits in one of the world’s most stable and attractive mining jurisdictions—offering low geopolitical risk and a reliable regulatory environment. Originally owned by Osisko Mining, Gold Fields first acquired a 50% stake in 2023, completing the full acquisition in Q4 2024, making it the sole owner of this promising asset.

What makes Windfall particularly exciting is its high-grade reserves—boasting a reserve grade of 8.1 g/t, far exceeding industry norms. At peak production, the project could yield well over 300,000 ounces of gold annually. And one of the project’s biggest strengths lies in its low all-in sustaining costs (AISC), estimated at less than $800 per ounce, which positions it as a high-margin operation. This stands in stark contrast to many gold mines facing rising costs, making Windfall’s cost structure incredibly appealing, especially if gold prices remain strong.

The potential financial impact of Windfall on Gold Fields is substantial. Once fully operational, the project could generate between about $700 million in additional annual revenue—assuming a relatively conservative average gold price of $2,300 per ounce. This revenue infusion, paired with Windfall’s low cost structure, is expected to boost Gold Fields’ free cash flow, reducing its reliance on other legacy operations like Salares Norte and South Deep. Additionally, Windfall’s contribution will improve the company’s overall cost structure, enhancing margins and lowering the AISC across its entire portfolio.

As Gold Fields moves forward with Windfall, the potential for a re-rating of the stock is another positive. With its high-grade reserves, favorable AISC and strong production outlook, Windfall could justify a higher valuation multiple for the company. This may help explain investors’ enthusiasm for the company’s stock in early 2025, with the promise of Windfall acting as a powerful catalyst for long-term growth and profitability.

Newmont remains a bellwether in the industry

Newmont delivered impressive Q4 earnings results, reaffirming its status as a dominant player in gold mining. The company reported adjusted net income of $1.6 billion, or $1.40 per diluted share, an impressive jump from the $0.50/share observed in the same quarter last year. This performance surpassed analyst expectations, which had projected earnings of $0.92/share. 

For fiscal 2024, Newmont posted adjusted net income of $3.48 per share and EBITDA of $8.7 billion, driven by a combination of higher output and rising gold prices. This strong performance helped generate $1.6 billion in free cash flow during Q4—an impressive 115% increase from the previous quarter. The numbers reflect how the recent gold surge has bolstered Newmont’s financial strength.

On the operational side, Newmont delivered 6.8 million attributable gold ounces for the year, along with an additional 1.9 million gold-equivalent ounces from other metals like copper, silver, lead and zinc. Q4 was particularly strong, with gold production climbing 14%. The company also saw AISC drop by 9% to $1,463 per ounce in Q4. With gold averaging $2,643 per ounce during the quarter, Newmont continues to benefit from healthy margins, positioning itself well for continued profit.

While those results are encouraging, Newmont’s valuation presents a slightly different picture. The company’s P/S ratio is 3.10, and its EV/S ratio stands at 3.50, both well above the sector medians of 1.30 and 1.70, respectively. Much like with Gold Fields, these elevated ratios suggest the market may be pricing in optimism driven by the gold rally, instead of reflecting the company’s intrinsic value. The company’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is also priced more reasonably, clocking in at 11.5, compared to the industry average of 17.5.

These valuation metrics paint a picture similar to Gold Fields’. The elevated price-to-sales and enterprise value-to-sales ratios suggest the market is betting on future growth, fueled by the ongoing gold rally. However, Newmont’s forward P/E ratio of 11.5, well below the sector average of 17.5, signals earnings expectations are more grounded, offering a more realistic outlook on the company’s financial performance.

The reasonable P/E ratio may help explain why analysts remain generally optimistic about Newmont’s future. Of the 24 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate the shares as a “buy” or “overweight,” while nine rate it a “hold.” The average price target for Newmont is $52 per share, suggesting modest upside from its current price of around $45.

Investment takeaways

Gold Fields and Newmont both have reasonable forward P/E ratios, indicating their earnings expectations align with market norms. However, both also have elevated EV/Sales and Price/Sales ratios, signaling investors may be focusing on the rally in gold prices, as opposed to the intrinsic value of the miners. This trend is consistent across other well-known gold miners, such as Harmony Gold (HMY) and AngloGold Ashanti (AU), highlighting how sector-wide enthusiasm may be pushing valuations above what the fundamentals justify. 

Digging deeper, an examination of the price-to-book (P/B) ratio provides additional insight. In gold mining, a high P/B ratio can indicate the market expects strong growth and places greater value on a company’s gold reserves. That appears to be consistent with Gold Fields’ P/B ratio of 3.30, compared to Newmont’s P/B ratio of 1.85, implying that investors are placing a higher premium on Gold Fields’ assets. This is likely attributable to the potential of the Windfall Project, but if things don’t work out as expected, or the gold rally stalls, that premium could be at risk. 

For investors, the choice seems clear: Pay a premium for Gold Fields, betting on the future success of Windfall or take a steadier, more conservative approach with Newmont. Gold Fields is up 37% year-to-date, while Newmont is up 15%, reflecting their divergent risk-reward profiles. On the other hand, single stocks aren’t the only option available to investors focused on gold. 

For those seeking a more diversified approach, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) offers a compelling alternative. Over the last 52 weeks, GDX has outperformed both Gold Fields and Newmont, rising 56% compared to 54% for Gold Fields, and 47% for Newmont. Holding a broad basket of gold miners, this gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) reduces the risk associated with picking individual winners, while offering strong exposure to the gold market. Moreover, both Gold Fields and Newmont count among the top 10 holdings in the ETF, providing direct exposure to these industry leaders. 

Andrew Prochnow has more than 15 years of experience trading the global financial markets, including 10 years as a professional options trader. Andrew is a frequent contributor Luckbox magazine.

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