Strong Economic Data Pushes Expected Rate Cut to Q3

Memorable sports comebacks

By

|

The exhilaration of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat Toronto Maple Leafs (1942) The Toronto Maple Leafs pulled off an epic comeback that’s never been duplicated in the 100-year history of the National Hockey League. In 1942, the Maple Leafs fought their way through the playoffs to the final round. Only the Detroit Red … Continued

How China “Controls” Inflation

By

|

The Middle Kingdom’s command-style economy is keeping consumer prices artificially low. It can’t last.  As most of humanity grapples with inflation, China finds itself in an unusual position. Consumer prices have barely inched up there, while the cost of doing business has increased substantially. The divergence, rooted in the nature of the Chinese economy and … Continued

Uncertain Indicators

By

|

A close look as some historically reliable predictors—some are picking Trump, while others favor Biden An abyss of uncertainty—that’s what the upcoming presidential election represents for the country and the financial markets. To see why the election results are shrouded in mystery, let’s examine the results of three different predictive approaches. First, an economics-based model … Continued

Bear Market Models

By

|

Beware the unholy combination of global pandemic, sharply reduced GDP, unprecedentedly high unemployment and a bear market correction Reactions to the COVID-19 global pandemic, including the lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing, have shut down enough businesses and industries to crack the foundation of humanity’s financial security.  The quickly spreading fissures are difficult to track, but … Continued

Huawei, 5G & the US-China Tech War

By

|

Is the West ceding power to China?  Most countries have a city or region that’s the national leader in technological innovation and development. In the United States, it’s California’s Silicon Valley, and in India it’s the city of Bangalore. In China it’s the city of  Shenzhen, which is arguably the fastest-growing major city in the … Continued