A close look as some historically reliable predictors—some are picking Trump, while others favor Biden

An abyss of uncertainty—that’s what the upcoming presidential election represents for the country and the financial markets. To see why the election results are shrouded in mystery, let’s examine the results of three different predictive approaches.

First, an economics-based model indicates a Joe Biden win, while a markets-based approach predicts a Donald Trump victory. Second, a history professor famous for choosing the winners of presidential races has called the contest for Biden, while a well-known political scientist says his model favors a Trump landslide in the Electoral College. Third, traders in the prediction...

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