Two methods of foretelling the outcome of presidential elections—both of them long-established and well-regarded—are coming up with different predictions this cycle. One favors Trump and the other picks Biden.

Two scholars noted for their prowess at predicting the winners of presidential elections—including Donald Trump’s generally unanticipated Electoral College victory in 2016—are parting ways this year. One’s betting on a win by former Vice President Joe Biden, and the other’s picking President Donald Trump for another term. Let’s parse the details.w

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at The American University in Washington, D.C., says he’s accurately foretold the outcome of every presidential contest since 1984, even...

Subscribe or sign in to view the rest of this content

All digital content on this site is FREE!

Sign In