Betting on the Grammys
Nominees for the annual music awards were announced last week and The Rockhound is handicapping the Grammy prediction markets on Kalshi and revealing best bets
Nominations for the 67th annual Grammy Awards were announced last week ahead of the awards ceremony on Feb. 2, 2025, and several prediction markets are already open on Kalshi. As of publication, Kalshi has 13 Grammy markets, including the big four categories: Song of the Year, Best New Artist, Record of the Year and Album of the Year.
While pop is at the forefront of the big Grammy categories, The Rockhound is assessing rock and alternative categories, as well, to make her best predictions for who should win a Grammy vs. who will win a Grammy.
During the judging process, Recording Academy voting members (which are up to 13,000 this year) consider several factors, including record, album and single sales; streaming numbers; popularity; and cultural impact on the industry. Think of the artists you’ve seen or heard of the most throughout the year, whether it be on the radio, in Rolling Stone magazine or via socials like Tik Tok. Those are likely to be the artists you’ll eventually see with gold gramophone awards in hand.
Best Alternative Music Performance
Nominees:
Cage the Elephant – Neon Pill
Fontaines D.C. – Starburster
Kim Gordon – Bye Bye
Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds – Song of the Lake
St. Vincent – Flea
Who will win: St. Vincent – Flea
Who should win: Fontaines D.C. – Starburster
I’m sorry. Based on my other musical interests, I know I should like Kim Gordon but I just don’t. I understand her impact on the industry and punk/alternative genres, but I just cannot get behind listening to her. And though I’m not surprised to see her in this category, it frustrates me like most grammy nominations do each year. I would have loved to see a band like Mannequin Pussy instead, but here we are.
I am delighted to see Fontaines D.C. on the roster, though, a band that reminds me of Cage The Elephant—two very experimental rock sounds that dip into varying styles and production elements. Like Cage The Elephant, Fontaines D.C. has an in-your-face energy yet is melodic at the same time. And for a category like this one, you have to also look beyond the sound, paying careful attention to how they throw themselves into the song physically.
I would also be happy to see Cage The Elephant win, though I believe Fontaines D.C. Starburster is a more sonically dynamic and interesting song.
As for St. Vincent, she will wholeheartedly deserve it if she wins—an artist who has time and again reinvented herself for the era she is in. When I think of alternative music, I think St. Vincent. And she is one hell of a performer. The three times I’ve seen her live, I just stared at her in awe, red lipstick smeared on her upper lip and on her chin because she practically puts the microphone in her mouth.
Best Alternative Music Album
Nominees:
Brittany Howard – What Now
Clairo – Charm
Kim Gordon – The Collective
Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds – Wild God
St. Vincent – All Born Screaming
Who will win: Brittany Howard – What Now
Who should win: Brittany Howard – What Now
Ah! A category that isn’t pop and is mostly all women! I love to see it. Brittany Howard is no stranger to the Grammys with 16 nominations and five wins, including a win for Best Rock Song last year for Stay High. Howard has an over-reaching sound of psych-rock and smooth soulful ballads, which makes her a lively nominee in the alternative category. She taps into various styles and experiments with instrumentation and production in a way that keeps her sound fresh with each release.
Trends from the past few years show this category tends to favor indie names over household names, and Howard falls in the middle of those categories. If you know Alabama Shakes and follow soul/Americana closely, there’s no way you don’t know her music. But folks who aren’t as interested in those genres may not place a face to the name.
Despite minimum streaming and sales stats on the album, What Now represents a moment of clarity for Howard as an independent artist. And if people hadn’t listened to her before this album, they are now. She’s also just the perfect winner in the eyes of Recording Academy voters. An established musician who’s been going at it for over a decade, moving from a band on to solo work, and doing so gracefully.
Last year, she was nominated in the Best American Roots Performance category for a song called Short and Sweet—a name nearly identical to Album of the Year nominee Short n’ Sweet by Sabrina Carpenter.
Best Rock Song
Nominees:
The Black Keys – Beautiful People (Stay High)
Green Day – Dilemma
Idles – Gift Horse
Pearl Jam – Dark Matter
St. Vincent – Broken Man
Who will win: St. Vincent – Broken Man
Who should win: Idles – Gift Horse
Not enough women and/or people of color are nominated in the rock-specific categories. Every year, it’s either St. Vincent or one other female-led group. Last year, the category saw a bit more representation with the likes of Paramore and boygenius, but it still shocks me how this category continuously leans toward white middle-aged men. Anyway, I’ll contradict myself and say I would like to see Idles take this one home.
I’ve written about the Brit rockers plenty, including a review of their latest album TANGK. They are one of the most exciting bands I’ve seen in a while and aren’t afraid to take some risks, which I always look for in artists. In my review earlier this year, I recommended starting with Idles’ song Gift Horse because it highlights their high energy and frontman Joe Talbot’s knack for lyrical soul.
Now, this is a category where I must look at the larger picture to make a decent guess at who will win. Who have I seen the most from this past year? Who has the most decorated fanbase? Who was mentioned in other projects beyond their own work? Whose song may have had a greater impact on the industry? St. Vincent.
Best Rock Album
Nominees:
The Black Crowes – Happiness Bastards
Fontaines D.C. – Romance
Green Day – Saviors
Idles – TANGK
Jack White – No Name
Pearl Jam – Dark Matter
The Rolling Stones – Hackney Diamonds
Who will win: The Rolling Stones – Hackney Diamonds
Who should win: Jack White – No Name
I doubt this is the most comprehensive roundup of the best rock albums this past year. I’m thinking of Hurray for the Riff Raff’s The Past is Still Alive; illuminati hotties’ POWER; or Sleater-Kinney’s Little Rope. But who knows who submitted an application for Grammy consideration.
Like Kim Gordon, I have never been able to fully get behind The Rolling Stones. I know, you might not trust my taste now. My age can likely speak for that, but I am also just more tuned into the indie rock scene and consider many smaller bands so much better than The Rolling Stones. But that doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate or understand their impact on the industry and pop culture as a whole. Hell, I can imagine many indie rock bands today have pulled inspiration from the Stones. Yes, they’re iconic. Did they have the best rock album of the year, though? Debatable.
An album I was especially moved by this year was Jack White’s No Name. I’m a casual listener of White’s but can agree with most who say No Name was reminiscent of his early White Stripes days. With a heavy blues undertone, the album leans into a fuzzy, alt-rock sound that is simultaneously easy to listen to and impossible not to mosh to.
It is also consistently exciting artist to be a White fan. It was great way he introduced the album No Name as a mystery vinyl that only a couple hundred lucky fans got their hands on before its official release. Currently, White is touring the U.S. in small independent clubs, announcing the shows only two to three days in advance—creating a truly special live experience. He could easily sell out large venues for any price he wants but prefers the intimacy of music, going against the grain of the industry.
No Name showcases White at his absolute best, as he digs into his past for a sound that puts his growth on full display.
Best Album of the Year
Nominees:
André 3000 – New Blue Sun
Beyoncé – Cowboy Carter
Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan – The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Charli XCX – BRAT
Jacob Collier – Djesse Vol. 4
Sabrina Carpenter – Short n’ Sweet
Taylor Swift – The Tortured Poets Department
Who will win: Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft
Who should win: Charli XCX – Brat
This is a category I look more to trends, cultural impact and streaming numbers for, rather than which album I liked the most based on my specific tastes. As of August, Charli XCX’s BRAT and its remixes surpassed 1 billion total streams on Spotify. But beyond that, the album and XCX herself created an entire movement of Brat summer. And I wouldn’t normally care that much about a social media trend, but it was evident that people cared beyond a Tik Tok dance, and actually listened to her music on repeat—in addition to attending massive arena shows.
In terms of which artist made the most waves in the industry this year, I’d absolutely consider that to be Charli XCX.
But who will actually win the category, and why? There are many possibilities. Billie Eilish is the first artist to get their first three albums nominated in this category and she won in 2020 for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? Beyoncé is now the most Grammy-nominated artist in history (99). While she’s also taken home the most wins (32), she has never won in the Album of the Year category. And I’m not sure she’ll bring it home this year, either. Taylor Swift has won the category four times, and The Tortured Poets Department was the first album to accumulate 1 billion streams in a single week.
On Kalshi, these are the three with the highest odds with Eilish currently at 41%, Swift at 26% and Beyoncé at 20%. My bet is on Eilish, which is currently trading ‘Yes’ at 43¢. These percentages and bet costs will change often, so it’s important to monitor daily.
Something to note on Kalshi is that you can also place a ‘No’ bet on a nominee you think has high odds of not winning the Grammy award. For example, you can place a ‘No’ bet on Andre 3000 in this category for 99¢. And if he ends up not winning the Grammy, then you’ll get the payout for that bet.
Best Song of the Year
Nominees:
Beyoncé – Texas Hold ’Em
Billie Eilish – Birds of a Feather
Chappell Roan – Good Luck, Babe!
Kendrick Lamar – Not Like Us
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars – Die With a Smile
Sabrina Carpenter – Please Please Please
Shaboozey – A Bar Song (Tipsy)
Taylor Swift Featuring Post Malone – Fortnight
Who will win: Billie Eilish – Birds of a Feather
Who should win: Billie Eilish – Birds of a Feather
Interestingly, Billie Eilish’s Birds of a Feather is the only song on this list that has more than 1 billion streams on Spotify as of publication. Fortnight broke the record for most streams on Spotify in one day, but as of October, the song has about 700 million streams. This alone shows that Birds of a Feather has had more consistent growth and popularity since its release in May. Eilish has also won this category twice for Bad Guy and What Was I Made For?
On Kalshi, Birds of a Feather has the highest odds, with 47%, and Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us is closely behind it with a 32% chance. A rap song has never won in the Song of the Year category, let alone a diss track, which was part of a feud with rapper Drake. But, never say never.
Best New Artist
Nominees:
Benson Boone
Doechii
Chappell Roan
Khruangbin
Raye
Sabrina Carpenter
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims
Who will win: Chappell Roan
Who should win: Chappell Roan
This is going to be a close one between Roan and Sabrina Carpenter. Both have had meteoric years, bringing pop music back to the forefront of the scene. Last year, Roan released her debut album The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, which garnered significant appraise after her single Good Luck, Babe! went viral. Opening for Olivia Rodrigo earlier this year on The Guts Tour is a likely reason her music streams skyrocketed.
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess debuted with 3,000 in sales last September, and has since multiplied its opening sales by 18, for a current total of 55,000 copies sold, according to Billboard.
This year, Roan’s been touring extensively at the largest festivals in the country, including Coachella, Governor’s Ball and Lollapalooza, which saw its largest midday crowd in history because of her performance. For those new to Roan’s music, it seemed like a sudden overnight success, but her career is nearly 10 years in the making. Between her album release, major performances, viral internet exposure, and a unique visual aesthetic heavily influenced by drag culture, she’s made it bigger than she may have ever imagined.
Though on Kalshi, Carpenter currently has the highest odds with a 62% chance, vs. Roan’s 39%. Despite this, my bet is still heavily leaning toward Roan. Pay attention to this market, it’s likely to fluctuate ahead of the awards ceremony in February.
Kendall Polidori is The Rockhound, Luckbox’s resident rock critic. Follow her reviews on Instagram and X @rockhoundlb, TikTok @rockhoundkp