The Fed’s High-wire Act
A soft landing for both the economy and the strong dollar seems like a fantasy in these uncertain times. That’s why investors should look back to the 1970s for ideas on how to proceed.
Consider the following: Andrew Brigden, chief economist at Fathom Consulting, found that 469 international economic downturns occurred between 1988 and 2020. Of those events, the International Monetary Fund had predicted only four.
When it comes to forecasting the likelihood of a soft or hard landing by late 2023, it’s anyone’s guess. In a world where political and economic leaders no longer agree on a simple definition of a “recession,” what chance do they have of accurately predicting crisis or recovery?
The central bank must attempt a soft...
