Probability Reigns
Unless we know the chances they’ll come true, predictions mean almost nothing
The new year brings resolutions and predictions.
Spend time with friends or family in late December or the first few days of January, and you’re likely to hear about their plans to get more exercise, lose weight or save money—all admirable choices.
But despite those good intentions, the chances are they’ll break every resolutions in less than a week, which makes them kind of useless.
Similarly, turn on the TV or visit a news website, and you’re likely to hear predictions for the coming year. They often come from Wall Street analysts, stock prognosticators and talking heads who have opinions to share on where the market might go.
How useful...
