This recent survey of Luckbox readers was conducted between Sept. 15 and Oct. 5. It has a margin of error of +/- 5.5%

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How have Luckbox readers’ core political beliefs and attitudes changed over the last 10 years?  

Most Luckbox readers’ political beliefs have remained unchanged in the past decade, but a few finding themselves leaning a bit more to the right. Meanwhile, the rest of the country remains almost evenly split. A Pew Research Center study shows 49% of registered voters are Democrats or lean Democratic, and 48% are Republicans or lean Republican. Neither party has enjoyed a sizable advantage in recent decades, but the Democratic Party has lost the slight edge it maintained from 2017 to 2021, according to Pew.

Who won the VP debate?  

Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio took home the victory, according to 67% of Luckbox readers. Nationally, it was practically a draw. Immediately following the debate, CBS News asked voters who won, and 42% picked Vance while 41% gave the nod to Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota. At least the majority of debate viewers appreciated what they saw as a positive tone. And POLITCO attributed the dead heat to the country’s hyper-polarized politics.  

Who won the presidential debate?  

A lot of Luckbox readers who considered Vance the victor in the VP debate believed Vice President Kamala Harris won the presidential debate in September. Some readers couldn’t pick a clear winner in presidential clash, and only 23% felt former President Donald Trump came out on top. In a CNN Flash Poll, 63% of voters who watched the presidential debate said Harris outperformed Trump. Before the matchup, those voters were evenly split on who would do a better job. Harris’ favorability rating among voters who watched the debate rose to 45%, while Trump’s remained stuck at 39%, the CNN poll reveals.  

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.?  

Overwhelmingly, Luckbox readers are dissatisfied with the state of the nation. Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and Harris accepted the Democratic nomination, Gallup News reported a new low of 28% of adults were satisfied with the way democracy was working in the country—down from the previous low of 35% after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. In September, that same poll revealed an even lower low, with 22% of the voters surveyed satisfied and 76% dissatisfied.  

Third-party votes 

About 37% of Luckbox readers have voted for a third-party candidate. A Gallup News poll reveals 63% of voters agree the Republican and Democratic parties do “such a poor job” of representing the American people that “a third major party is needed.” That’s not a huge increase from 62% in 2021 and 61% in 2017. Independents remain the group most likely to vote for a third-party candidate, the national poll indicates.  

Motivation behind presidential vote 

Fifty percent of Luckbox readers are motivated to vote in the upcoming presidential election in support of the candidate or party they favor. But 43% are motivated to vote against a candidate or party. In a July Pew Research Center poll, most voters (71%) say it really matters who wins the election. 

Vote tampering and election integrity 

There’s no evidence supporting the idea that widespread fraud affected the 2020 presidential election, but Trump and allies have tried undercutting the election’s legitimacy for years—sparking a voter fraud hysteria. According to NBC News, three in 10 people believe Biden won the 2020 election because of voter fraud. A PR/PBS News/Marist poll published last week indicates more than half of Americans are concerned about voter fraud in the upcoming election. Some 41% of Luckbox readers say they’re very concerned with vote tampering, and about 58% of the Americans polled by PR/PBS News/Marist are either concerned or very concerned voter fraud will occur. About 42% are not very concerned or not concerned at all.  

Which vote should determine the presidency?  

The Founding Fathers came up with the Electoral College to determine the winner of the presidential election. While six-in-10 American voters (63%) would prefer to see the popular vote decide the election, according to Pew Research Center, most Luckbox readers (56%) are in favor of preserving the Electoral College.  

Who will win the Electoral College vote?  

Sixty percent of Luckbox readers believe the Electoral College vote will go to Trump. A candidate needs at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win. The polls are incredibly tight in swing states, but according to the BBC, Harris leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. 

Wagering on elections 

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia recently ruled unanimously that the prediction market Kalshi could allow users to bet on which political party will control the House or Senate in 2025. Some traders will be able to bet as much as $100 million on Kalshi and the brokerage giant Interactive Brokers, according to POLITICO. An article in Forbes said the “ruling lifts a block issued by the court last month after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission motioned to prohibit the bets.” Forty-nine percent of Luckbox readers say it should be legal for Americans to wager on the outcome of elections, with 27% saying no and were 24% unsure.  

Should voters be required to show an ID at the voting booth?  

Eight states have enacted stricter voter ID laws since 2020, affecting 29 million adults, according to NBC News. And other states, like Neveda and Maine, might consider joining the other three dozen states that require an ID at the polls. Luckbox readers overwhelming said yes (89%) to requiring one. Studies have found more than 9% of American citizens of voting age, or 21.3 million people, don’t have proof of citizenship readily available. 

Mail-in ballots 

A majority (61%) of Luckbox readers said mail-in ballots are likely to increase the probability of voter fraud. Trump continues to insist voting by mail leads to cheating, and only 16% of his supporters say they plan to vote by mail, while a third of Harris supporters plan to do so, according to PBS.  

Top 5 election issues 

These are the most important issues to Luckbox readers: 

1. The economy (77%) 
2. Immigration (59%) 
3. The First Amendment (56%) 
4. Size of the government (55%) 
5. Supreme Court appointments (54%) 

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