An All-Star Panel Wades Into the Election Prediction Market Trading Pits

Mark Cuban, Robert Cahaly, and others joined Luckbox’s Jeff Joseph to look several days into the future without the advantage of a crystal ball
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Forecasting has been a preoccupation at Luckbox. Over the past six years we’ve taken several deep dives into the subject, but let’s also acknowledge forecasting is fun. And now that prediction markets on political election outcomes are legal, we thought we’d share some quality prediction time with friends of the magazine. 

Here’s the lineup:

  • Robert Cahaly—former GOP political consultant and founder of the Trafalgar Group, a company cited by Nate Silver as the most accurate polling organization in the 2016 election.
  • Mark Cuban—entrepreneur, former principal owner and now minority owner of the Dallas Mavericks, founder of Cost Plus Drugs and Shark Tank shark.
  • Jeff Joseph—veteran prediction market trader, co-host of The Prediction Trade and editorial director of Luckbox magazine.
  • Dylan Ratigan—former political and financial commentator on MSNBC and for The Young Turks, and co-host of the Truth or Skepticism podcast.
  • Scott Supak—entrepreneur and 10-year veteran of professional political prediction market trading.

Disclosures:

  1. Our panelists provided these election forecasts yesterday (10/3). They could not be privy to any polling data or news that broke since.
  2. They went along with the forecasting challenge in good fun. Most considered the last three questions too close to call—let alone to warrant a wager.
  3. An asterisk (*) denotes the panelist has wagered on the indicated outcome.
  4. Don’t think of these forecasts as trading advice, endorsements or representations of desired outcomes. We asked the panelists to forecast what they believe to be the most likely outcome.
  5. Click on the links below to see the current odds on Kalshi.

So, here are our five questions and our panelists’ responses.  

Which swing states do you have high confidence (+65%) Harris is more likely to win?  

  • Wisconsin — Cahaly, Cuban, Joseph* and Supak* 
  • Michigan — Cuban, Joseph and Supak* 
  • Pennsylvania — Cuban and Supak* 
    • Cuban and Supak* both award the “blue wall” to Harris 
  • North Carolina, Arizona & Nevada — Cuban 
  • Ratigan does not have a high level of confidence on any swing state outcome. 

Which swing states do you have high confidence (+65%) Trump is more likely to win? 

  • Arizona — Cahaly and Joseph* 
  • Georgia — Cahaly, Cuban and Joseph* 
  • North Carolina — Cahaly 
  • Ratigan does not have a high level of confidence on any swing state outcome. 

Which party do you believe will win the House? 

  • Democrats — Joseph, Ratigan and Supak* 
  • Republicans — Cahaly 
  • Don’t know / No strong feeling – Cuban 

Who do you believe will win the popular vote for president? 

  • Harris – Cuban, Joseph, Ratigan and Supak* 
  • Trump – Cahaly 

Note: 49% of Luckbox readers believe Harris will win the popular vote vs. 46% for Trump. 

Which candidate do you believe will win the electoral college and the presidential election? 

  • Harris – Cuban, Ratigan* and Supak* 
  • Trump – Cahaly and Joseph  

Note: 60% of Luckbox readers believe Trump will win the presidency vs. 39% for Harris. 

Editor’s note. The electoral college vote is simply too close to call, and certainly not worth the wager. But, in the spirit of this forecast and my inclination to participate along with our invited panelists, I selected Trump to win the electoral college. I can’t even say that I am going with my own gut instinct. I’m deferring to Nate Silver’s gut.     

— Jeff Joseph 

Jeff Joseph is Luckbox editorial director.

Politics