Trends
Traders, Speculators & Gamblers: Season 3 Is Here!
By Luckbox
The Prediction Trade returned this week, kicking off its third season with trade ideas in PredictIt’s Brazilian election markets, bets on the NCAA March Madness tournament and forecasts for Kalshi’s 2022 Academy Awards markets.
The show evolved for its new season to include a video format, and Luckbox magazine editor at large Garrett Baldwin was brought on as a co-host.
The Prediction Trade airs weekly on the tastytrade financial network Thursdays at 5 p.m. Central Time, and the debut episode can be watched below.
Prefer to listen to the show? Check out The Prediction Trade podcast, wherever you listen to podcasts, here!
The Prediction Trade
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Taking Stock in Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce
By Nav Dhillon
|Prediction market Polymarket is booking bets on the famous couple's romance while Predictit makes a market on who'll get the GOP nod for president -
Prediction Markets for Prescient Political Punters
By Flip Pidot
|A political prediction market trader holds forth on recession, the 2024 presidential race, politically charged indictments and the chance of a nuclear armageddon he ink is still wet on the… -
The Murky Future of Political Futures Markets
By Flip Pidot
|A prediction market insider asks regulators for leniency in the battle over wagering on political outcomes. The sometimes sleepy world of political prediction markets has found itself, rather suddenly, in… -
Uncertain Political Futures
By Mike Reddy
|The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew its longstanding no-action letter for political prediction market platform PredictIt. Luckbox asked its co-founder what that means for the future of political forecasting. A lot… -
Student Debt Bets
By Mike Reddy
|Wagering on policy markets can seem challenging, but public opinion polling and political context can provide valuable clues Luckbox readers have a lot to say about student debt forgiveness. “Students… -
Making Rain
By Mike Reddy
|Prediction markets will pay you to get the weather forecast right—something made easier if you know what to look for -
Political Fortunes
By Mike Reddy
|Serious money can be made and lost when prediction markets flip—and in some cases flip back again. Here are a few of the most memorable market comebacks from recent elections.… -
Is Inflation Transitory?
By Mike Reddy
|You can bet on it. Literally. By now, just about everyone has heard about—if not felt—the rise of inflation. And as the top-of-mind question evolved from “Will inflation happen” to… -
Kalshi: The Exchange for Everything
By Mike Reddy
|Investing in the outcome of events is nothing new, but this federally regulated events exchange is Longtime Luckbox readers are well aware of the educational and financial benefits of reliable… -
What Gamblers Can Learn From Superforecasters
By Warren Hatch
|An understanding of an event’s base rate is a critical component of smart decision-making Successful gamblers, like good forecasters, know how to translate hunches into numeric probabilities. For most people,… -
Business Forecasting Models
By Warren Hatch
|Combining related forecasting questions into clusters can reveal bigger-picture insights for businesses and industries Forecasting is an essential part of business. Companies use historical data and economic trends to make… -
The Cost of Overconfidence
By Warren Hatch
|Hubris erects a barrier to good forecasting. Unchecked, it could prove expensive. With SPACs all the rage, it’s important not to get too carried away by the rhetoric. Overconfidence can… -
Cuomo Will Be Reelected, Scaramucci Says
By Mike Reddy
|Sexual misconduct allegations might not be enough to stop the New York governor from securing a fourth term. Despite numerous sexual misconduct allegations and a deluge of calls for his… -
TPT Is Back!
By Luckbox
|“The Political Trade” podcast is now “The Prediction Trade,” and there’s a lot more than just political betting on the horizon Luckbox magazine’s political prediction market podcast, The Political Trade,… -
Open-Minded Forecasting in a Deeply Polarized World
By Warren Hatch
|Superforecasters share three strategies for making accurate predictions Americans are more polarized than ever, and their split along two ideological extremes complicates a forecaster’s job. Polarization stresses feelings over facts,… -
20 Predictions for ’21 and Beyond
By Jeff Joseph
|Luckbox tries its hand at forecasting with 20 outlier predictions for the next two years. BUSINESS An unprecedented 5G-fueled increase in data breaches and cyber crime The spread of 5G… -
Jo Jorgensen: On “Wasted” Votes & Shy Libertarians
By Luckbox
|In solid red or blue states, one vote is unlikely to change the outcome. Instead, Libertarian presidential nominee Jo Jorgensen suggests using that vote to support third parties and, as… -
The Pollster Who Nailed 2016 Says the Polls Are Wrong, Trump Will Win
By Luckbox
|Social desirability bias has created a shy Trump voter effect, Trafalgar Group’s chief pollster Robert Cahaly says. The result? Trump could fare much better on election night than most polls… -
The Pros are Betting on Blue
By Mike Reddy
|Prediction market traders forecast a strong Democratic showing in November Despite Joe Biden’s lead in national polling, the fate of the 2020 election is closely tied to the results of… -
GOP Insider: Begging Trump’s Pardon, Breaking Blago & Some Big, Bold Predictions
By Luckbox
|Mark Vargas, the “mystery man” who helped broker commutations for Rod Blagojevich and Roger Stone, reveals how he accomplished the unlikely, as well as some shocking political predictions Donald Trump’s…