Derek Phillips’ Best Bets
A super trader who’s ranked among the top 100 traders on PredictIt’s leaderboards shares tips on which markets have attracted his attention—and his money
Which party will win North Carolina in the 2020 presidential election?
Buy Democrat YES or Republican NO under 50¢
Traders love to ponder the Democrats’ chances in Wisconsin and Arizona, but it’s a mistake to overlook North Carolina. Democrat Roy Cooper is primed to run for reelection in North Carolina as one of the most popular governors in the country and is polling about 20 points better than his opponent. Similarly, North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has high unfavorables and will run against a young military veteran, Cal Cunningham, who is largely unknown but has no major weak spots. Add to this that the Obamas will probably focus their surrogacy on this state more than any other, and former Vice President Joe Biden should get enough help from his friends to pull him over the finish line.
Who will win the 2020 Georgia Democratic Senate primary?
Buy Teresa Tomlinson YES under 30¢
It’s hard to handicap this race because there isn’t much polling data, but Teresa Tomlinson is in a stronger position than her price suggests. Democrats in Georgia are eager to advance the political prospects of young, progressive women, and there’s no denying Tomlinson’s potential. With her working-class background and popularity as mayor of largely black Columbus, she should do well with Georgia’s African-American base, which is essential to secure the nomination. Her opponent in the primary, Jon Ossoff—a candidate big on name recognition after his high-profile loss in the 2017 Sixth District special election—is viewed as a weak candidate in the general against Republican incumbent Sen. David Purdue. If Tomlinson’s campaign is grounded by the pandemic, there’s a chance Ossoff wins on name recognition alone, but it’s smart to bet she finds a way to break through.
Derek Phillips began trading political futures professionally during the 2016 election, turning $400 into $400,000 in four years. Phillips has appeared on Episodes 5 and 6 of The Political Trade. @dmpfrompi
