Political Predictions
A pundit with a knack for picking winning trades on Predictit shares his latest best bets
Will the U.S. economy hit 5.0%+ GDP growth by year-end 2020?
Buy NO under 35¢
As one trader pointed out, this is essentially betting on the worst recession in American history. Dark as that sounds, this outcome is within the bounds of some of the worst-case scenarios for economic projections. More than that, I’m betting that the economic outlook will continue to be revised lower and lower as the worst of the coronavirus pandemic hits. Most recently, Bank of America scaled back expectations to project GDP contracting by 7%, 30% and 1% in the next three quarters, which leaves only one quarter for recovery. With those projections I am hoping that I can sell in the 70s or 80s and then, perhaps, buy some YES to cheer on an economic comeback for the country.
Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Montana in 2020?
Buy Republican YES or Democratic NO in the low 50s
This bet is more of a hedge against my holds on Democrats having a big election night, including winnig the Senate and White House. If they don’t win both of those, there’s no chance that Steve Bullock can pull it out here, and it will be nice to be able to recoup some of my losses there with a bet against Bullock here. I don’t usually like to throw money away hedging, but there is such a good chance of winning all three bets (Democrats winning the White House and the Senate by way of Arizona, New Hampshire and North Carolina, but not Montana) that this bet seems more than worthwhile.
Who will win the 2020 Alabama Republican Senate primary?
Buy or hold Sessions YES or Tuberville NO in mid 20s
I got lucky with my prediction in last month’s issue about Sessions having a decent chance to win the Alabama primary. He’s up about 15¢ off of his low of 10¢ in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s full endorsement of Tommy Tuberville, bolstered by the uncertainty added by the secretary of state’s decision to postpone the primary. I’m holding at this price, betting that the further we get from Trump’s endorsement, the more voters will look for established leadership to help recover from the pandemic, instead of taking a chance on an outsider. I’m still unsure if this will be enough to pull Sessions over the finish line, but I do think the price has plenty of room to improve.
Derek Phillips began trading political futures professionally during the 2016 election, turning $400 into $400,000 in four years. Phillips has appeared in Episodes 5 and 6 of The Political Trade. @dmpfrompi.
